WP5 Modelling and policy simulation
WP5 Modelling and policy simulation has conceptualised and implemented a “European Health Policy Model software” (D5.1) that served as basis for a empirically-based dynamic micro-simulation model. The Model contains: i) a demographic model with exogenous births, accounting for net migration flows and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality over time; ii) a (chronic) disease models based on disease incidence, remission (when appropriate) and fatality as functions of individual characteristics and risk factors; iii) a risk factor models based on longitudinal trajectories of exposure and behaviour over the life-course; iv) the assessment and implementation of joint distributions and interactions between chronic diseases and between risk factors, and their effects on health, longevity and health care expenditures. In addition, WP5 has also collected data to capture and project geo-spatially the population’s exposure to environmental factors with significant risks to health within the same population modelling framework for three large European cities (Lisbon, Vienna, Tallinn). The II FRESHER survey allowed to run the simulation of the four FRESHER Scenarios. The models run results are contained in the report on projecting the future social, health and economic burden of risk factors, disease and injury in the EU (D5.2) whereas the micro-simulations setting are described in the scientific paper on the micro-simulation methodology, results and recommendation for future research (D5.3). The micro-simulation can be also explored through the web-interface: http://www.fresher-explorer.eu/
WP5 leader: Université D’Aix Marseille (AMU)